Trump to rename Greenland – Gotcha!

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Everyone has been running around going bonkers about President Trump’s demands over Greenland. But in reality they shouldn’t be surprised.

Trump has always had a playbook in terms of negotiation. And yes, I know he is a bully, but he uses that perception to get his own way.

His opening gambit is outrageous. Everyone is outraged. He doubles down. He backs it up with more pressure aka increasing tariffs. More outrage. And instead of long boring wasteful committee meetings, there is a clearcut demand and required outcome. People offer concessions, he moderates what he wants. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief and he has exactly what he really wanted. He has famously said he is not a gambler and never has been. He reaches for what he knows he can get, and shape-shifts until he has it.

But in the meantime, people are starting to think – hang about he has a point, and the arctic is an open back door to America. It’s one of the reasons that during WW2 America effectively took over Greenland and had huge bases there.

The subtext here is that the Greenlanders cannot defend it (even if all 57,000 or so of them took up arms). Their famous armed dog sled patrols would, I think, not be entirely effective against massed invaders with AK47s. Nor could Denmark even with 6million people. The Russians and the Chinese have been put on notice that America is not going to standby any longer where its own security is involved. Arguably, that is what Putin is all about in respect of HIS country. Now Trump is making it clear to the rest of the world that this is the way it’s going to be. He’s backed it up by ordering ice-breaking technology from Finland, the world’s ice-breaker superpower. This is an area where both Russia and China are ahead of the game which means the US – and by a long way. You may have noticed a huge new oil field having been discovered by Russians in British Antarctic Territory. Quite apart from how Russians are being allowed to do that, it makes the point that the ends of the earth are the future. And that means the technology needs to be right. By the way, icebreakers don’t slice through ice. They effectively climb on top of it and crush it. Very clever.

The other plus point is that Trump’s theme of making Europe pay more for its defence, no longer relying on America, has concentrated minds. If Greenland had to be defended by NATO, which it would be if attacked by Russia, that means an exponential rise in European defence budgets. Allowing Trump on site would mean the Europeans could concentrate on their own defence if Russia decided to move into the Baltic States for example. That has to be part of Putin’s strategy and I’m sure would have been enacted by now if he had rolled over Ukraine. We should all be grateful to everyone who has given their all to stop it.

Greenland is arguably the gateway to the Arctic and as the ice recedes, more shipping lines will open up. These will need protection. The rare earth potential and other resources are a no brainer in terms of exploitation and the Americans have no intention of letting anyone else in on the party.

I saw a lovely thing the other day. Simply by raising the issue, Trump has cut through committees and bureaucracy and forced other countries to think about it properly in a reasonable time scale. We all know about the years that trade deals take. Trump’s not interested in that. And it has also made Americans think, hey, it’s our back yard. Europeans, too, are thinking we need to do something about Greenland’s security – and by extension the Arctic. Trump is also telling Russia and China, don’t think you can wander about near us with impunity. If only the UK did the same with all the various incursions the Russians have engineered over the last few years we would be in a much better place.

The thing I particularly like is that Trump has linked territorial disputes to trade. And why not? If you want to win, for sure you should use everything in your armoury. The other thing being achieved is a drop in the value of the dollar, making US exports cheaper and imports more expensive. Although unspoken, this has been an American wish for some time. The collapse of the Japanese bond market will only hasten things. It’s a tricky tight-rope, but worth the effort.

Trump has already moved the dial in respect of Greenland’s future, and won some of the things he was looking to tuck under his belt. For sure that old expression “Such and such a company is in play” is back in vogue. It’s not a company, it’s an entire extremely large and potentially profitable country that’s in the headlights.  Greenland is approximately one quarter the size of the USA. Watch this space.

Oh, and what might he call it? I’m sure I don’t need to tell you.

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