Is crypto entering the summer doldrums?
📉 Sideways trend continues: Bitcoin and broader crypto markets are trading flat this week, closing June up just 2%, with strong support above the $100K mark.
📊 All eyes on the Fed: US unemployment data could shape expectations for interest rate cuts, with banks split between September and December as potential timelines.
🌍 Macro over micro: With no major crypto-specific catalysts, investor attention is focused on macro risks such as rate policy, tariffs, and Middle East tensions.
Crypto markets continue to drift sideways this week as Bitcoin and others have barely moved since a price bump over the weekend, closing out the month 2% higher, with notable defences of the $100K floor. The numbers and sentiment trackers reflect this general neutrality in risk-on investments such as crypto and stocks, with the broader US stock market moving in tandem with Bitcoin this week.
Investors may be waiting for June’s economic data before getting going again. US unemployment numbers on Thursday could provide more insight into the jobs market, which in turn may influence the Fed’s interest rate decisions in the coming months.
On that note, most banks are split between the Fed cutting rates in either September or December, with a few outliers suggesting it could happen as soon as July or as late as next year. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos noted on X that Goldman Sachs expects a better-than-even chance the Fed's first rate cut will be in September (previously December), followed by two more cuts by year-end, for a total of 75 basis points.
Given the lack of big catalysts such as network upgrades in crypto, the attention of investors and analysts seems to be fully focused on the Fed’s moves, Trump’s tariff decisions, and the conflict in the Middle East, where the ceasefire is currently holding.
While the past is in no way an indicator of the future, Research firm 10X Research noted that the sideways movement seen in June is typical of a historic summer consolidation period for crypto. Then again, the current economic and geopolitical environment is far from typical.
In the markets…
🌍 Total crypto market cap ↗️
The global crypto market cap is approximately $3.31 trillion, up 0.05% over the past 24 hours.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) ↘️
Price: $107,179, down 0.45% in the last 24 h
Daily high: $107,938
Daily low: $106,763
📈 S&P 500 ↗️
SPY is currently up about 0.52% since yesterday’s close.
😐 Fear & Greed Index
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 52/100, indicating a neutral sentiment among investors.
📊 Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14)
The 14-day RSI for BTC is approximately 42, still in the neutral zone (30–70).
Data is accurate as at 07:52 GMT, 1 July.
Cautionary Notes
It's definitely tempting to get swept up in the excitement, but please heed these words of caution: Do your own research, only invest what you can afford, and make good decisions. The indicators contained in this article will hopefully help in this. Remember though, the content of this article is for information purposes only and is not investment advice or any form of recommendation or invitation. The Digital Commonwealth always advises you to obtain your own independent financial advice before investing or trading in cryptocurrency.
