DCW FRONTIER FOCUS

December 10th, 2025, Edition No 4 • Navigating the Digital Commonwealth

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Intelligence, Security, Infrastructure, Energy & Quantum Innovation

Welcome to the latest edition of DCW Frontier Focus, your essential briefing on the converging frontiers of technological innovation. As we enter the final weeks of 2025, the digital transformation landscape continues to accelerate at an unprecedented pace, bringing both extraordinary opportunities and complex challenges across the Commonwealth's technology sectors.

This week has witnessed critical developments across all five frontier domains, from President Trump's controversial executive order on AI regulation to quantum computing breakthroughs at Stanford, exponentially growing data centre power demands, and the accelerating race toward 6G deployment. These developments underscore the increasingly interconnected nature of our digital economy and the strategic imperatives facing organisations navigating this transformative period.

Artificial Intelligence: Federal Pre-emption Escalates Amid Bipartisan Resistance

The United States AI regulatory landscape has entered an unprecedented crisis phase this week, as President Donald Trump announced his intention to sign an executive order establishing federal pre-emption of state-level AI regulation, despite overwhelming bipartisan opposition in Congress and from state governors across the political spectrum.

Trump's 'ONE RULE' Executive Order

On 8th December 2025, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would sign a 'ONE RULE' executive order this week, declaring: 'You can't expect a company to get 50 Approvals every time they want to do something... There must be only One Rulebook if we are going to continue to lead in AI.' The President argued that state-level regulation would destroy AI 'IN ITS INFANCY' and jeopardise American competitiveness against other nations, particularly China.

The executive order, based on a leaked draft from November 2025, would create an 'AI Litigation Task Force' to challenge state AI laws in court, direct federal agencies to evaluate state laws deemed 'onerous', and push the Federal Communications Commission and Federal Trade Commission toward national standards that override state rules. Critically, the order would grant White House AI adviser David Sacks direct influence over AI policy, superseding the usual role of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, currently headed by Michael Kratsios.

Unprecedented Bipartisan Pushback

The announcement has triggered extraordinary bipartisan resistance, with Republican governors and legislators joining Democrats in opposing federal preemption. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis posted on 6th December: 'I oppose stripping Florida of our ability to legislate in the best interest of the people. A ten-year AI moratorium bans state regulation of AI, which would prevent FL from enacting important protections for individuals, children and families.'

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) stated: 'States must retain the right to regulate and make laws on AI and anything else for the benefit of their state. Federalism must be preserved.' House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told CNBC that the provision 'doesn't appear to have a lot of support amongst Democrats and Republicans in Congress.'

This represents the second failed attempt at federal preemption in 2025. In July, the Senate voted 99-1 to remove a 10-year moratorium on state AI regulations from Trump's domestic policy bill. Just last week, another attempt to insert preemption language into the National Defence Authorisation Act was quashed in Congress due to bipartisan opposition.

State Legislative Momentum Continues

Despite federal pushback, state-level AI legislation continues to accelerate. According to the Future of Privacy Forum's comprehensive analysis, 38 states adopted more than 100 AI-related laws in 2025, focusing primarily on deepfakes, transparency and disclosure requirements, and government use of AI. The National Conference of State Legislatures tracked over 1,000 AI-related bills introduced across state legislatures in 2025.

State approaches have evolved toward narrower, transparency-driven frameworks rather than sweeping comprehensive regulation. Key legislative themes include use- and context-specific measures (particularly in healthcare and mental health), technology-specific bills targeting frontier models and chatbots, and liability frameworks clarifying or modifying the application of existing legal regimes to AI systems.

China's International Governance Push Intensifies

Whilst the United States debates its internal regulatory authority, China continues to position itself as a global leader in AI governance frameworks. At the October 2025 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, President Xi Jinping reiterated China's proposal to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation (WAICO), which would bring nations together to create a global governance system for AI.

China's domestic AI framework emphasises open-source model releases. It focuses less on the development of artificial general intelligence than Western nations do, instead emphasising the use of AI to drive economic growth through its 'AI+' policy, introduced in August 2025. Chinese firms must allow regulators to test AI systems before public deployment, and comprehensive regulations must cover harmful content, privacy, and data security.

Cybersecurity: AI-Driven Threats and Third-Party Vulnerabilities Dominate

The cybersecurity landscape this week highlights the accelerating sophistication of AI-powered attacks and the continuing critical weakness of third-party supply chains, with significant vulnerabilities discovered in Android, React, and Oracle systems alongside projections that AI will become the dominant cyber threat vector in 2026.

Critical Zero-Day Vulnerabilities and Active Exploits

CISA added several critical vulnerabilities to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalogue this week, including two high-severity Android Framework zero-day exploits that are actively being exploited in targeted attacks. CVE-2025-48572 (privilege escalation) and CVE-2025-48633 (information disclosure) require immediate patching according to Google's December security bulletin.

Meta discovered a critical remote code execution vulnerability in React Server Components (CVE-2025-55182) that allows unauthenticated remote code execution by exploiting flaws in how React decodes payloads sent to React Server Function endpoints. The vulnerability, disclosed on 3rd December, affects a widely used web framework and highlights supply chain risks in foundational web technologies.

Oracle Fusion Middleware is currently under active exploitation due to a missing authentication vulnerability (CVE-2025-61757) that allows unauthenticated remote attackers to take over the Identity Manager. The Cl0p ransomware group has exploited this vulnerability, affecting major enterprises including American Airlines subsidiary Envoy Air, DXC Technology, and other Fortune 500 companies.

AI as the Primary Cyber Threat Vector in 2026

Experian's 13th Annual Data Breach Industry Forecast, released this week, positions AI as the primary cybersecurity threat for 2026. The forecast predicts attackers will increasingly Weaponise AI tools to outpace defences and exploit vulnerabilities, whilst defenders must simultaneously harness these innovations to strengthen security postures.

'We're entering a new era where cyberattacks are no longer just about stealing data, they're about manipulating reality,' stated Jim Steven, Head of Crisis and Data Response Services at Experian Global Data Breach Resolution. More than 8,000 global data breaches occurred in the first half of 2025, exposing approximately 345 million records, with the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada most affected.

The World Economic Forum's Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025 emphasises that AI-powered attacks now require advanced defence systems using behavioural analysis, network segmentation, and machine learning to contain potential breaches. The integration of large language models into honeypots represents a new frontier in deception-based cybersecurity, creating sophisticated dynamic interactions that adapt to adversarial behaviour in real time.

Third-Party Supply Chain Compromises Escalate

According to Verizon's 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report, breaches linked to third-party involvement reached record levels, doubling from the previous year and driven by vulnerability exploitation and business interruptions. Third-party supply chain compromises now incur average costs of $4.91 million and take longer to identify and contain than any other cyber intrusion type.

Major incidents this year include the massive Magecart attack surge (a 103% increase in six months) targeting e-commerce payment systems, the Solana Web3.js backdoor that drained $160,000-$190,000 in cryptocurrency, and a 156% surge in malicious npm packages, many of which were semantically camouflaged with documentation and unit tests to appear legitimate. Self-replicating malware using AI-generated bash scripts compromised 500+ npm packages and 25,000+ GitHub repositories in 72 hours.

Energy Technology: Data Centre Power Demands Exceed All Projections

This week brings dramatically upward-revised forecasts for data centre electricity consumption driven by AI workloads, with multiple research organisations projecting demand growth that could fundamentally strain grid infrastructure and potentially double or triple electricity requirements by the end of the decade.

Explosive Forecast Revisions

BloombergNEF released a comprehensive analysis on 1st December projecting that US data centre power demand will reach 106 gigawatts by 2035, representing a 36% upward revision from its April 2025 forecast and nearly tripling current consumption of 40 gigawatts. Globally, the report projects that data centre electricity consumption will reach 945 terawatt hours by 2030, slightly more than Japan's current total electricity consumption.

The dramatic revision reflects both the volume and unprecedented scale of new projects. Of nearly 150 developments added to BloombergNEF's tracker in 2025, almost one-quarter exceed 500 megawatts, more than double the typical size of existing facilities. Today, only 10% of data centres draw more than 50 megawatts, but over the next decade, the average new facility will draw well over 100 megawatts. A handful of gigawatt-scale sites are coming online in the next few years.

Supporting analyses from other major research organisations paint an even more aggressive picture. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts global power demand from data centres will increase 50% by 2027 and as much as 165% by 2030 compared with 2023 levels. Gartner projects worldwide data centre electricity consumption rising from 448 terawatt hours in 2025 to 980 TWh by 2030, with AI-optimised servers representing 44% of total consumption by decade's end, up from 21% in 2025.

Department of Energy Assessment

The US Department of Energy published its 2024 Report on US Data Centre Energy Use this week, produced by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, confirming that data centre load growth has tripled over the past decade and is projected to double or triple again by 2028. The report estimates that data centres accounted for approximately 4.4% of total US electricity consumption in 2024.

'The United States has seen an incredible investment in artificial intelligence and other breakthrough technologies over the last decade and a half, and this industrial renaissance has created greater demand on our domestic energy supply,' stated US Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm. 'We can meet this growth with clean energy.'

Grid Infrastructure Constraints and Regional Challenges

Despite record global grid investment exceeding $470 billion in 2025, transmission capacity expansion lags significantly behind data centre demand growth. BloombergNEF's Grid Investment Outlook 2025 warns that without accelerated infrastructure development, regional grid constraints will throttle AI deployment and potentially push up electricity prices for all consumers.

The PJM Interconnection, managing the electrical grid from Illinois to North Carolina, faces particularly acute challenges. Data centres accounted for an estimated $9.3 billion increase in PJM's 2025 capacity auction, with the costs potentially passed on to ratepayers. Some utilities report demand forecasts requiring grid capacity equivalent to adding entire new cities to their service territories.

ERCOT, managing approximately 90% of Texas's grid, confronts similar challenges. Reserve margins could fall into 'risky territory' after 2028 as long-term power supply lags accelerating demand growth. Virginia and Texas represent the two largest state-level data centre demand areas in 2025, with Virginia reaching approximately 12.1 gigawatts and Texas hitting 9.7 gigawatts according to 451 Research forecasts.

Demand Uncertainty and Market Dynamics

Significant questions persist regarding whether projected power demands reflect genuine requirements or speculative capacity planning. Former Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner Willie Phillips observed that AI companies are 'shopping for identical large projects with multiple utilities to secure the quickest access to power', raising concerns about potential market overbuilding. Natural gas turbines are primarily sold out through the end of the decade, whilst advanced nuclear technologies are not expected to reach commercial scale until the 2030s at the earliest. More than 90% of data centre electricity currently comes from grid connections rather than onsite generation.

Digital Infrastructure: 6G Development Accelerates as 5G Reaches Critical Mass

The telecommunications infrastructure landscape this week demonstrates the transitional nature of 2025, with 5G deployments achieving significant scale globally even as 6G development accelerates dramatically toward commercial realisation by 2028-2030, creating strategic planning challenges for operators and policymakers.

5G Global Maturation and Enterprise Adoption Challenges

Global 5G subscriptions reached approximately 2.9 billion in mid-2025, accounting for about one-third of all mobile subscriptions, according to Ericsson's June 2025 Mobility Report. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, 145 million new 5G subscriptions were added, highlighting the rapid pace of adoption. The technology provides ultra-low-latency, high-speed connections and supports massive IoT networks, enabling innovations such as connected vehicles, smart factories, and immersive augmented and virtual reality applications.

However, enterprise adoption, critical for operator return on investment, has proved slower than anticipated. Wireless stakeholders at Mobile World Congress Las Vegas 2025 intensified efforts to increase enterprise uptake, as lacklustre migration has led to underwhelming returns on 5G investments. For telecom operators that have invested an estimated $275 billion in US rollout alone, this financial pressure underscores the urgency of demonstrating value propositions beyond consumer applications.

6G Commercial Test Rollouts Begin

Whilst 5G continues expanding, 6G development has accelerated dramatically in 2025. Initial commercial test rollouts are now operational in Seoul, Helsinki, and Munich, with Samsung and Nokia indicating their testbeds have matured to levels adequate for limited deployment. In Seoul, several business districts now boast 6G nodes in operation, offering downlink speeds of hundreds of gigabits per second.

The deployment strategy follows a familiar pattern from previous wireless generations, targeting high-density cities first to assess performance under heavy loads before expanding to rural territories. What distinguishes this rollout is the unprecedented speed of global cooperation. Standardisation efforts coordinated through the International Telecommunication Union have developed extremely quickly, with the ITU likely to finalise 6G standards under their 'IMT-2030' framework around 2028.

3GPP Workshop and Technical Priorities

The 3GPP Workshop on 6G, held in Incheon, South Korea, on 10-11 March 2025, brought together global stakeholders from industry, academia, and government to outline vision, priorities, and technical considerations for next-generation mobile communication technology. The workshop focused on lessons learned from 5G deployments and on exploring innovative solutions to meet future connectivity demands.

Key 6G enabling technologies gaining traction include terahertz (THz) communication, with 30% of 6G research focused on THz frequencies by 2025, and AI-driven network management, with 40% of 6G networks expected to integrate AI for optimisation and self-healing capabilities. The technology promises speeds up to 100 times faster than 5G, supporting holographic communications, digital twins, real-time immersive experiences, and seamless connectivity across terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks, including low Earth orbit satellite constellations.

United States Policy Coordination

The National Telecommunications and Information Administration continues advancing 6G policy coordination with the Federal Communications Commission and federal partners, emphasising principles of openness, security, and resiliency. NTIA's request for comment process on 6G development revealed diverse stakeholder priorities, including effective spectrum management through dynamic spectrum sharing models, expanded mid- and high-band spectrum availability, and public-private partnerships for research and development in AI, quantum communications, and Open RAN architectures. Looking forward to 2026, NTIA will ensure that fundamental principles aligned with the 'Joint Statement Endorsing Principles for 6G: Secure, Open, and Resilient by Design' are incorporated into new initiatives.

Quantum Computing: Multiple Breakthroughs Signal Transition to Practical Applications

The quantum computing landscape this week demonstrates remarkable convergence toward practical fault-tolerant systems, with major announcements from IBM, Stanford University, and Harvard University showcasing diverse technical approaches while collectively validating the viability of scalable quantum computation.

IBM's Dual-Track Roadmap Progress

At its annual Quantum Developer Conference on 12th November 2025, IBM unveiled two critical processor developments. IBM Quantum Nighthawk, the company's most advanced quantum processor, features 120 qubits linked by 218 next-generation tunable couplers in a square lattice architecture, representing over 20% more couplers than IBM Quantum Heron. This increased qubit connectivity allows users to accurately execute circuits with 30% greater complexity whilst maintaining low error rates, enabling the exploration of computationally demanding problems that require up to 5,000 two-qubit gates.

Simultaneously, IBM announced IBM Quantum Loon, an experimental processor that demonstrates all the key hardware elements needed for fault-tolerant quantum computing. Loon validates a new architecture that implements and scales components required for practical, high-efficiency quantum error correction, including multiple high-quality, low-loss routing layers that provide pathways for longer on-chip connections, physically linking distant qubits on the same chip.

Critically, IBM achieved a breakthrough in quantum error correction, demonstrating the ability to use classical computing hardware to accurately decode errors in real time (less than 480 nanoseconds) with quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes. This achievement came one year ahead of schedule and represents a fundamental requirement for practical fault-tolerant quantum computing.

Stanford's Room-Temperature Quantum Communication Breakthrough

Stanford University researchers announced a groundbreaking nanoscale optical device on 2nd December that operates at room temperature to entangle the spin of photons and electrons, achieving quantum communication without the need for super-cooling. The device utilises twisted light from molybdenum diselenide to entangle photons and electrons, stabilising quantum states for effective communication.

'The material in question is not really new, but the way we use it is,' stated Professor Jennifer Dionne, senior author of the paper published in Nature Communications. 'It provides a very versatile, stable spin connection between electrons and photons that is the theoretical basis of quantum communication.' Room-temperature operation represents a great leap forward in overcoming the complexities and costs of supercooling, potentially reshaping applications in cryptography, advanced sensing, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence.

Harvard-MIT Scalable Error Correction Demonstration

Harvard University researchers, in collaboration with MIT, demonstrated a system published in Nature on 18th November that integrates all essential elements for scalable, error-corrected quantum computation. The neutral atom array enabled complex circuits with dozens of error-correction layers, suppressing errors below a threshold where adding qubits further reduces errors rather than increasing them.

'For the first time, we combined all essential elements for a scalable, error-corrected quantum computation in an integrated architecture,' stated Mikhail Lukin, co-director of the Quantum Science and Engineering Initiative and senior author. The system employs quantum teleportation to transfer quantum states between particles without physical contact, demonstrating practical pathways toward fault-tolerant systems.

Investment Momentum and Commercial Demonstrations

According to SpinQ research, quantum computing companies raised $3.77 billion in equity funding during the first nine months of 2025, nearly triple the $1.3 billion raised in all of 2024. National governments invested $10 billion by April 2025, up from $1.8 billion in all of 2024. Publicly traded quantum computing firms, including Rigetti, IonQ, Quantum Computing, and D-Wave, have seen share prices increase by more than 3,000% over the past year, according to Motley Fool analysis. In March 2025, IonQ and Ansys achieved a significant milestone by running a medical device simulation on IonQ's 36-qubit computer that outperformed classical high-performance computing by 12%, marking one of the first clear demonstrations of quantum advantage in a commercial application.

Strategic Outlook

This week's developments underscore several critical themes for organisational leadership entering 2026:

Regulatory fragmentation reaches crisis levels in AI governance, with President Trump's federal pre-emption push facing unprecedented bipartisan resistance whilst state-level legislation accelerates. Commonwealth organisations face increasing compliance complexity as jurisdictional divergence widens between the United States' deregulatory approach, the European Union's risk-based framework, and China's state-directed governance model. The outcome of the current executive order battle will fundamentally reshape the constraints on AI development across North America.

Energy infrastructure constraints represent the fundamental bottleneck to AI and digital transformation ambitions, with data centre power demand forecasts revised dramatically upward across multiple authoritative sources. Grid capacity constraints, particularly in key regions such as PJM and ERCOT, will increasingly dictate the pace and location of AI deployment. Questions about the authenticity of demand versus speculative positioning create strategic uncertainty, whilst the gap between power requirements and generation capacity widens despite record infrastructure investment.

Cybersecurity resilience transitions from compliance exercise to operational imperative, with AI-powered attacks projected to dominate the 2026 threat landscape and third-party supply chain compromises doubling in frequency. The integration of AI into both offensive and defensive capabilities creates an arms race requiring continuous investment in advanced detection systems, whilst the proliferation of zero-day exploits demands accelerated patch management and robust incident response capabilities.

Quantum computing's transition from research curiosity to practical technology accelerates rapidly, with multiple organisations demonstrating viable paths to fault tolerance through diverse technical approaches. Room-temperature quantum communication breakthroughs at Stanford, scalable error correction demonstrations at Harvard-MIT, and IBM's dual-track roadmap toward both quantum advantage (2026) and fault tolerance (2029) collectively validate near-term commercial viability. The quantum threat to existing cryptographic systems necessitates urgent post-quantum cryptography transitions, with industry experts estimating 10-15 years required for government and enterprise network migrations.

Digital infrastructure investments must balance immediate 5G monetisation imperatives with emerging 6G requirements. The operational deployment of 6G test networks in Seoul, Helsinki, and Munich, combined with rapid standardisation progress through the ITU's IMT-2030 framework, positions commercial 6G launches in the 2028-2030 timeframe. Telecommunications operators face the challenge of extracting value from substantial 5G investments whilst preparing infrastructure for terahertz frequencies, AI-native network architectures, and seamless terrestrial-satellite integration.

As 2025 draws to a close, the convergence of AI, cybersecurity, energy infrastructure, telecommunications, and quantum technologies creates both unprecedented complexity and transformative potential. Organisations that successfully navigate these intersecting domains, balancing innovation imperatives with regulatory compliance, resource constraints, and security requirements, will define competitive advantage in the digital economy of the coming decade.

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The Digital Commonwealth Limited publishes DCW Frontier Focus.

For inquiries: info@thedigitalcommonwealth.com

© 2025 DCW Frontier Focus. All rights reserved.

Date of Publication: 10th December 2025

EAJW

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